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Looking for Clues Behind the Post Olympic Break Collapse of the Stars Defense

You don't need to be a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to see that the Stars' defense has crumbled since the Olympic Break. And that it's a big reason behind the playoff hope killing 4-7-2 stretch that they're mired in.

It certainly played a big role in last night's 3-0 loss to the Sharks as Marty Turco was under siege, again, to the tune of 41 shots. And like Art said last night, once the Sharks figured out that it wasn't in their best interests to turn the puck over repeatedly to the Stars, they got their game rolling, pinned the Stars deep, and turned the Stars' half of the rink into a shooting gallery.

As I was watching this contest unfold, I couldn't help but think back to the game earlier this month in Pittsburgh, where the Pens fell behind 3-1, then made it a point to physically target Stephane Robidas and the other Stars' defensemen. Shortly thereafter, they took over the game.

Well, the same thing happened last night after Jed Ortmeyer rammed Robi into the boards at the Stars bench with the door open. Robi being Robi, he stayed in the game. But he was obviously hurt. And from that point on, the Sharks made it a point to take every opportunity to hit the Stars.

Consequently, they took the game over. Which led me to research the last 13 games to see if the stats bore out the theory that once opposing teams physically target the Stars, they take the game over. And for fun, I decided to throw in faceoff stats, in part, because Mike Modano's been on the shelf in the last six games after an emergency appendectomy on March 15th.

Stats and pretty analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

And if I may say so, the stats are...interesting.

  Hits
Against
Giveaways Shots
Against
Goals
Against
FW FL FW
Pct
Shots to Hits
Ratio
Hits to Goals
Ratio
LA 24 8 22 6 28 26 0.519 0.917 4
STL 25 11 27 5 29 31 0.483 1.08 5
at PIT 30 4 34 6 35 38 0.479 1.133 5
at WAS 21 6 52 3 31 38 0.449 2.476 7
at BUF 17 7 43 5 26 26 0.500 2.529 3.4
LA 33 15 28 1 23 30 0.434 0.848 33
COL 20 13 22 5 37 31 0.544 1.1 4
SJ 26 17 47 2 32 40 0.444 1.808 13
PHI 32 7 31 3 26 28 0.481 0.969 10.667
OTT 33 16 29 4 31 28 0.525 0.879 8.25
PHX 24 14 35 2 33 29 0.532 1.458 12
at NSH 12 8 35 1 22 29 0.431 2.917 12
at SJ 21 6 41 3 27 35 0.435 1.953 7
                   
Total 318 132 446 46 380 409      
Avg 24.46 10.154 34.31 3.54 29.23 31.46 0.482 1.403 6.913

 

The averages per game are posted on the bottom line. Any cell highlighted in red represents a stat above the average.

What can we discern?

  • I think there's a direct correlation between the consistent losses in the faceoff dot to the high shot totals. 5 times this month, the Stars have lost more than 55% of the draws they've taken in a game. In 4 of those 5, they've surrendered at least 35 shots on goal.
  • To be fair, one of those four was in an 8-2 win over San Jose. A game in which the Stars could afford to sit back, a bit, because they had a big lead and were just waiting to counter attack against a turnover prone club that night.
  • Now there is some silver lining. While the goaltending wasn't necessarily up to par in the first two games out of the gate against Los Angeles and St. Louis, it hasn't been the reason behind any of their other 5 regulation losses and two shootout losses. The lack of success in the shootouts in those games, as well as this year, can be pinned directly on the offense as far as I'm concerned. And on March 8th, the goaltending was the only reason the Stars were able to pull any points out of Washington.
  • And finally, the correlation between hits and shots. Or lack thereof. 6 times, the Stars have taken more than 25 hits in a game. But only once, has is led to an abnormally large shot total. That occurred on March 16th in the 8-2 laugher over San Jose. If anything, the increased hitting leads to, predictably, higher turnovers.

In conclusion, this proves one of Razor's axioms correct in that they're like bikinis. They reveal a lot, but not everything. The futility in the faceoff dot is probably the biggest statistical factor as the Stars inability to win crucial draws leads to something that statistics can't reaveal.

Determination and positioning. And as Art mentioned during the recap last night, Karlis Skrastins has become the Post Olympic Break poster child for positioning breakdowns. Too often in these 13 games, opposing offenses have been able to get interior on the Stars with relative ease. Last night was a perfect example as Mark Fistric appeared to be the only Stars defenseman willing to push back, like he did on Rob Blake during one of the Sharks second period power plays.

Everybody else offered token resistance.

And at the end of the season, I think we'll blame a lot of this team's defensive failures on the lack of a true top defense pairing.

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Except for the people who keep insisting on blaming it on goaltending (must quit reading DMN blog comments)

Nice statistical analysis. I once commented to a friend that I don’t think Martin Brodeur could play behind our defense. Heck, looks like he couldn’t play behind our entire team. Last I looked, hockey was still a team game. Games like Washington (only someone unwilling to face facts could deny that Turco won us that game) and the San Jose game last week (face it, it should have been a lot closer with the number of shots they were putting on net – Kari was spectacular), where your goaltender keeps you from getting run over in the goals against are not going to happen every night. The offense has to do their part by winning face offs (can’t we hire Guy Carbonneau to teach them how to do it?) and stop making cutesy passes that go to the other team’s sticks. The defense has to play a positionally sound game and be willing to push back against the other team. How often do we see players just standing around while the other team skates around with the puck with ease?

Unfortunately, we can keep wishing for a #1 defensive pair, but I think we all know that it’s not going to happen. As someone pointed out last night, this team is not that different than the one who went on that run in the 2008 playoffs. What have we lost since then? Our best defensemen. I wish I could say it looks like they are going to be replaced sometime soon, but not with this team’s off-ice issues.

by TracyJean on Mar 26, 2010 2:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Must stop reading DMN blog comments!

lol TracyJean, I feel the same way. After a loss I sometimes delay going there for a day just because I know what kind of comments I will read. But like a moth to flame, I just keep going back! :D I do like reading Heika’s thoughts, but some of the personal attacks in the comments both on players and other posters is just over the top.

by 1paniolo on Mar 26, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Last night I received the list

of every GVT for every player in the NHL since 1943-44. I’ve sorted the list and checked a few things out….if you look at the past 2 Stars teams compared to this one you’ll be shocked. I may put a fanpost up about it just so you can check it out.

The main highlight? Matt Niskanen GVT by year: 11, 8, .9 Yes. Eleven, Eight, Point Nine.

by UNTJosh on Mar 27, 2010 3:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, please do put up a post. I think it would be interesting to see based on that one little nugget you threw out.

Nisky’s number from two years ago doesn’t really surprise me because we still had all our good defensemen (although Zubie was out for stretches of time for injuries – he played a little over half the season), his offensive stats were the best of his professional career and he was a +22. Last year’s number does surprise me a little, because Zubie was out for most of the season (played only 10 games) – anyone remember who Nisky was paired with last year? His offensive stats were down in goals but up in assists, so that may account for some of that number, although he was a -11. This year’s number does not surprise me at all. For good stretches of the season, Nisky has looked lost on the ice and he has not produced offensively – 3G, 11A and is a -12 on the season. I would think that last number has a lot to do with his number this year, plus the fact that we tend to give up a lot of shots on goal (if I’m reading the Puck Prospectus primer on GVT correctly – too much statistics, LOL).

I’m curious to see what the rest of our players look like.

by TracyJean on Mar 27, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree Tracy

Everyone needs to understand that very little is going to change for next season.

The season after that…well, we’ll see.

Faceoff stats in particular situations is something I’m planning as a summer project, btw…

by Brad Gardner on Mar 26, 2010 2:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Oh and amen

On DMN comments.

I love Heika, obviously, but some of the commenters there…

by Brad Gardner on Mar 26, 2010 2:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Didn't a bunch of us have that conversation on Tuesday? LOL

But I do like reading Heika. I very rarely disagree with his analysis. I just wish there was a way to turn off the comments so you can’t see them.

by TracyJean on Mar 26, 2010 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Song Remains the Same

We were talking about these very same issues one year ago! sigh

When Joe came in and the only D moves were to sign Skrastins and Woywitka and the “internal budget” came up I assumed we would trade some forwards to address the obvious blue line deficiency. It seemed like a no-brainer when we pay the least in the nhl to our blue line by almost 50%!! Combine that with basically top 5 in payroll to our forwards and #1 in the nhl in forward pay as a % of total payroll and it seemed obvious we were would transfer salary from the forwards to the blue line. But Christmas came and went, Olympics came and went, trade deadline came and went and here we are coming up on one year later with basically the same roster structure.

So now I only see two paths …
1. Joe wanted time to evaluate how the talent fits the system, and then he couldn’t find anything worthwhile to do at the deadline. So he will make his moves this summer and try and move salary from the forwards to the defense.

2. Keep the current structure, play the young D and hope that they learn quick and Kari works out and cleans up the mistakes. Maybe the backup to this path, or even the long term strategy is that Hicks finances work out or the team is sold and they get an extra $8mi or so to buy a couple of top end D-men in a year or two.

Joe keeps saying he is doing option 2 … of course not mentioning hoping for a budget bump. I guess actions will speak louder than words over the next few months and we will be able to figure it out.

Faceoffs have been an issue even during the WCF run, but at least then we had Stu for critical draws. Now it seems likely we will lose Modano, who was somewhat reliable. On the plus side, Benn has been improving fast so that’s a bit of hope. I think it’s too late to think Ribs or Richards can get a lot better at this point in their careers. I will bet our suckage on defensive zone draws on the pk directly correlates to a drop in kill%.

by 1paniolo on Mar 26, 2010 3:23 PM CDT reply actions  

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