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Dallas Stars' Next Four Games Most Important Of Season

At one point last week, the Dallas Stars had the chance to pull within one point of eighth place in the Western Conference, something that seemed a distant and unattainable goal halfway through January. Yet with another poor offensive effort on the road, the Stars failed to take advantage and have now fallen back to five points behind the Calgary Flames.

The Dallas Stars have four games remaining before the Olympic break, and just five before the March 3rd trade deadline. It's a tough schedule that forces many hard decisions, but that's the reality in the 2010 season. With the Stars on the cusp, seemingly all season long, of breaking out and making a jump, it's been frustrating to watch this team fall short time and time again.

The Dallas Stars have not won three games in a row since March, 2009.

Joe Nieuwendyk and Jeff Cogen have stated this past week that they are committed to making and maintaining this team competitive. We've known all season long that changes need to be made to get the Stars back to a higher level, yet financial restrictions have negated most of the options that the team has. Add to the equation the number of potential free agents on the team, as well as a wealth of young talent that will be tough to part with and you have a tough task ahead for the rookie General Manager.

The key to how the rest of the season plays out, both on the ice and in the front office, lies in the next four games.

Star-divide

It's simple really.

If the Dallas Stars don't make up any ground in the standings this week, then the chances of Nieuwendyk making big moves for a playoff run go down. Buyers.

If the Stars find themselves facing a near insurmountable deficit, then Joe is looking towards this summer and next season and focusing on building the team for the future. Sellers.

The first scenario means a Marty Turco trade is highly unlikely. The second one most likely leads to Turco leaving.

The first means that of the Big Seven (Richards, Morrow, Ribeiro, Eriksson, Neal, Benn, Robidas), none are gone, and most likely not leaving anyway. But a team going into firesale mode opens up many more options for themselves as to who they are willing to part with for high value return.

I understand that the majority of Stars fans want this team to change many of it's parts, to build for the future and are somewhat willing to part with major pieces of this current team to make that happen. It's the sad reality of how teams rebuild.

Yet the best thing that could happen for this Dallas Stars franchise is to win three of the next four, sit in 9th place heading into the break, and focus on making the playoffs. Why, you might ask?

For one, a team that at least plays in the first round of the playoffs finds their internal finances beefed with a sudden flow of new income. Every team budgets their season on NOT making the playoffs; anything extra is a bonus. This is extremely important for a franchise that is handcuffed by strict financial guidelines, one that has been forced to sit well below the salary cap all season long. There is no sign of the Stars lifting those restrictions this summer, no matter what Nieuwendyk or Cogen might say.

Tough to rebuild a team over the summer, through trade and free agency if you can't actually spend money.

The Dallas Stars NEED to make the playoffs, for the future well being of this franchise. Now, Nieuwendyk won't stand pat at the trade deadline if the Stars are contenders, but he's not going to be selling the farm either.

Which makes the next four games so important. And when you look at how tough these four games are going to be, then you realize just how big a hole the Stars have dug for themselves.

Home against Phoenix.

AT Chicago.

AT Calgary.

AT Phoenix.

Done.

These four games, including three straight on the road, will determine the fate of this season.

The Stars have matched up surprisingly well against Chicago, and we all know what's been happening against the Coyotes. Let's be as optimistic as possible, and say the Stars win tonight at home against Phoenix and and in Chicago, but most likely lose in Arizona a week from now.

That makes the Calgary game that much more important, and this is a Flames team that has found new life after trading away Dion Phaneuf for a slew of goal scorers and a talented defenseman.

3-1-0 in the next four games would be as best we can hope for. Anything less could be devastating.

It all starts tonight.

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A few thoughts

1) The playoffs won’t make Hicks solvent. He’s in major debt and I promise that if they somehow find themselves there that money will never be put back into the Stars. He’s basically being forced to sell the team to pay off his debts. Just like he did with the Rangers and will have to do with Liverpool. So no the best thing for this franchise isn’t to hang around and bow out early or just miss down the stretch only to get a middling pick. Because come 2012 at the latest, Hicks will no longer own the Stars and whatever playoff money they may earn will never be realized with this club.

2) The big seven includes a few names that should be traded to make the team as a whole better. The returns for Daley, Turco, Ott, Skrastins, and Niskanen (if he’s moved) aren’t sufficient to fill the holes. Trading the five young guys (Benn, Neal, Eriksson, Grossman, and Fistric) fills one hole but leaves another and as good a value as they may have to other teams they have that same value already here in Dallas. That will just set back the youth movement that’s already going on.

3) So you’re going to have to sell at least one and possibly two of Richards, Ribeiro, Robidas, and Morrow. My preference would be in that exact opposite order. Sell from your strength to bolster the defense/goaltending weakness, tank for another high pick and be willing to make some hard choices to improve for the future.

4) This club has an excellent young nucleus to build around, but another high draft pick and swapping some players on this roster to fill other holes has to happen if they really want to be contenders in the future.

by Hull Fan on Feb 6, 2010 2:11 PM CST reply actions  

Mostly agreed

Neal, Benn, Eriksson, Grossman, and Fistric are the core we should keep in tact. But my order for selling would be Ribiero, Morrow, Robidas, and then Richards. Ribiero is not a great fit in this system and I don’t believe he will ever hit 80 points again, not to mention his 5 million per is only behind Richards. Morrow probably only has 2 or 3 years left of good hockey, so if your not planning on making a run for the cup, you could justify trading him while he has good value. Now Robidas; he is having his best season by far and could be a hot commodity at the deadline if available. Due to his reasonable salary and that he is not a rental could be very intriguing for teams. If our defense was not so thin already he would be ahead of Morrow, but I do not necessarily buy trading our best defenseman; unless some young guys are coming back. Richards is a whole different story: high salary and only 1 year remaining. His production is at an extremely high level and he is striving under this system. He is still relatively young and has enough good years left to justify building around him. But the other side is that you rid yourself of 7.8mil and he is at his highest value in a long time. Obviously your scenario is dependent on this 4 game stretch here, but you can also see the value in trading someone to make the team better now. I think the thing that would interest me most is packaging Ribiero, Niskanen/Daley, and Brunnstrom.

by modano9 on Feb 6, 2010 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

You are right.

Making the first round of the playoffs won’t all of a sudden turn the Stars back into free spenders.

With finances like they are, right now the only way this team builds on the nucleus it has and adds the pieces needed, trading some of the top players is the best way as far as valued return. Niskanen, Daley, Ott….much less value of a Morrow or Ribeiro.

I do know that the coming months are going to be tough for fans that are attached to certain players; for the future of the team some major pieces must be moved.

Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.

by Brandon Worley on Feb 6, 2010 2:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I think the best way to do it

instead of trying to make some huge blockbuster is to sell the pieces as individuals and then at the draft make some moves with say Robidas or Morrow and a pick or a prospect that they picked up for trading Ott for example. They don’t have to move everyone at the deadline but the UFAs need to go and they can see much better where the salary requirements are come July.

Just don’t sell the future or stand pat expecting a different result all of a sudden.

by Hull Fan on Feb 6, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions  

For Argument sake

And because I’m a fantasy hockey fanatic, I like putting what I consider pro-Dallas trades together and get others’ opinions. So, if you’re keen on grabbing a high pick, what about dealing with the Isles?

To Isles: Ribs, 2010 1st rounder, 2010 2nd rounder
To Stars: Streit, 2010 1st rounder

As it has been mentioned, we already have a fantastic young core, so giving up 2 lower picks for 1 higher one wouldn’t have a significant impact on our prospect depth. This, of course, is assuming the Stars don’t tank and the Isles don’t magically skyrocket. Plus it would fill our PP QB void. You can sub in Daley or Niskanen for the 2nd rounder if you wish.

The Isles get a long term veteran #1/#2 centre to go along with Tavares. I realize they have Weight, but he’s getting up there in age and likely won’t be around much longer. Not mention he is often tossed on the wing. Of course, they would have to give up their franchise d-man. Perhaps removing the 1st rounder then adding Robs and a later round pick would be an option. This would obviously mean Dallas giving up 2 key components of their identity.

As for the order, I would drop Richards out all together. He has proven this season just how important he is to this team, not only because of his scoring but because of his leadership and teammate loyalty. He reminds me of everything Modano did in the late 90s. If we’re going to make it back to the finals, it’s going to be with Richards leading the way.

by LilEagle on Feb 6, 2010 2:42 PM CST reply actions  

I really like Mark Streit

but that’s not enough for Ribeiro. I’d much rather take a chance and sell him for a young defenseman and a 1st round pick than swap places with the Isles. Especially if Niewy does the smart thing and sells Ott and Turco and hopefully one or both of Daley/Skrastins. This team is good enough to compete but I think they’ll be closer to 10-11 than 15-16 come draft time.

If Ribs is the one you sell off then it has to be a homerun and that proposal isn’t it to me. Though that may be a guy to covet. I can’t imagine the Islanders wanting to trade him.

by Hull Fan on Feb 6, 2010 3:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Streit would be great.

Agree on the first rounders. I’m not fond of straight up swapping firsts at this stage in the game, at all.

Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.

by Brandon Worley on Feb 6, 2010 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn't address the main point of the article...

But I wholeheartedly concur with the importance of these next four games. That said, we can only focus on one at a time. Right now I don’t care that they play Chicago next; we NEED a win tonight. I want to see them all come out flying and Neal break out. None of this one point every 2 or 3 games over the past month. Richards and Eriksson have been pulling their wait, Neal needs to have a big game. I know he’s been playing well lately and just not finishing, but that’s the key that needs to change. Let’s see it tonight.

by LilEagle on Feb 6, 2010 2:48 PM CST reply actions  

Remember a couple months ago

we are all complaining about the Stars only getting one point each game instead of two. Who here would take one point a game now? lol

When reading quality hockey material isn't enough, The Black Green and Gold

by Kent K on Feb 6, 2010 3:20 PM CST reply actions  

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