2010 NHL Trade Deadline: Auld On Waivers, But What About Marty Turco?
It's been announced today that the Dallas Stars have placed backup goaltender Alex Auld on waivers, temporarily solving the question of what the team was going to do with three goaltenders on the roster. After the trade for Kari Lehtonen, many believed that Marty Turco would soon be on his way out. Yet Turco immediately played perhaps his best hockey of the season leading up to the Olympic break and put the Stars into great position for the playoffs, just one point out of 8th place.
So the question then became, what will the Stars do with Turco? Was his elevated level of play too valuable for the Stars to trade away when he gives them the best chance in the playoffs, or is this a team that desperately needs to get something in return for a goalie they're most likely going to lose this summer? The Stars decided the move would be to place Auld on waivers, and immediately solve the issue of having three goaltenders on the roster.
After the jump, we'll examine these issues and break down why we think this was the perfect move for the Stars to make.
There is a sentiment out there that the Dallas Stars have to trade Turco away no matter what, because they are most likely going to lose him this summer for nothing and this isn't a team that is going deep into the playoffs anyways. The Stars need to build for the future, and holding onto Turco now and getting nothing in return is suicide for the future.
Yet there are a couple of factors you have to consider when dissecting the decision Joe Nieuwendyk and the Stars made when placing on Auld on waivers.
Marty Turco gives the Stars the best shot for the playoffs.
If the Stars were 6+ points out of the playoffs at this point, and sliding down the standings headed into the Olympic break, then the Stars were most likely going to trade Turco no matter what. The season is most likely over at that point, as it's near-impossible for them to make the playoffs. It's already improbable that they are this close at this point as it is, and they are still facing a massive uphill fight.
Yet the Stars must focus and work towards making the playoffs this season, especially considering their place int he standings. No matter what the plan for the future might be, Marty Turco gives this team the best shot now, not a tandem of Alex Auld and Kari Lehtonen.
Remember, the Stars traded for Lehtonen for the future and what his potential means for the goaltending position for the Stars in the long-term. He has yet to play a game in the NHL this season, and needs to be worked back into playing time, ideally backing up the starting goaltender for the Stars the rest of this season.
Marty Turco's value in a trade is not worth losing him for the rest of this season.
Many say Turco needs to be traded, simply to get some value for a him before he leaves via free agency this summer. Yet he is nothing more than a rental player, he has an expensive contract, he's 34 years old and there are not any teams out there in the playoff race that is in desperate need for a starting goaltender. The goaltender market is flooded right now, especially considering some of the names coming available this summer.
So what could the Stars hope to get in return if they traded Turco now? Other teams have the upper hand, knowing the Stars would be in need of trading him considering they have three goaltenders on the roster.
Unless Turco is traded as part of a much larger package deal, the best you could for in return is a mid-round draft pick and perhaps a mid-level prospect. You certainly won't receive anything in return that will help the Stars immediately after the trade.
I understand that many are convinced that Turco must go, and the Stars need to get the best value they can for him. Obviously the Stars are ready to move on, seeing as they jumped on the chance to acquire Lehtonen and get ready for a future without Turco.
The Stars have reportedly shopped Turco, have inquired about what teams would be willing to give up in a trade. The Philadelphia Flyers seem to be the most logical destination, yet even they are on the record as saying there's no way they can afford his contract.
So if the Stars can't get good value for Turco, there's no need to actually give him away. A winning season, a playoff berth now is much more valuable than a random 6th round player that won't make the NHL for 2-3 years at best.
Turco and Lehtonen > Lehtonen and Auld
If the Stars had to lose one goaltender, yet still find a way to make the playoffs and still be successful, then keeping Turco was the only option. Alex Auld was good with the Stars and did exactly what he was signed to do, yet there's no doubt that this team was not confident they could rely on Auld down the stretch if Turco was traded. Thus, if the Stars were going to trade Turco and take that chance then it would have be be for a return to make that risk worth it.
So the team has to weigh whether success this season is more important than trying to get any value they can for Turco by trading him. Nieuwendyk and company have maintained all season that the goal is to make the playoffs, not just building for the future. If they can do both at once, them they've solved and mastered the ultimate challenge for a new general manager.
There are still many pieces this team needs to be successful in the short and long term, and keeping Turco for the next few months will not suddenly solve them all. Yet with the team this close to a playoff spot, trading Turco now would be the equivalent of waving the white flag on the season.
There's also no guarantee the Stars keep Turco. Perhaps a team comes along with a package deal that overwhelms the Stars with the value they'd receive, and they'd have to make the move and hope continue with Lehtonen and Matt Climie. Doubtful, but possible.
The finances are still going to hamper this team's ability to make any major moves, and perhaps having Turco's salary on the books will hamper that further. Yet if we hope to have a successful season, this year, then having Turco in net is the best bet for this team in the near future.
Next season? Well, that's a different story.
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Comments
The Right move
Given this team’s financial situation, I think a playoff berth is the best thing for them. Getting two playoff games at home is always a revenue boost and who knows, maybe they go on a run and get favorable matchups like they did in ’08…
Those who say that we should simply trade Turco for a mid-level pick obviously don’t understand the salary cap. The odds are, we’d have to take back a fat contract in return and that simply does not help our financial situation.
Contract
The budget for this year is set, you obviously don’t take a contract back that is on the books for next season but if a team is will to give you a second round pick for Turco and you have to take back a little salary then who cares? This also shows the dumbness of the Lethonen trade. You don’t trade for a 3m goalie who has an injury history who you don’t if he’s healthy. If he gets hurt, all the sudden you are rolling with an Auld type and a Krahn at goalie because you can’t go get a goalie with any salary. There is no quicker way to destory your season than that.
Poor Decision
Look, the Stars are in a playoff race but they are not a playoff team (sorta like they got up to 4th last season). If they really want to make a playoff run then you trade Glennie and co. to boost your chances in the playoffs. Keeping Turco is the completely wrong move. You trade Turco for whatever you get for him, be it a 7th round pick or a 3rd round pick or a mid-level prospect. The Stars need assets and Marty Turco is only an asset if traded.
If you aren’t willing to trade Turco because you’re in some supposed playoff run, you sure as hell don’t even consider trading Ott as any return for Ott won’t be equal to what he will contribute to this season. It doesn’t matter if Ott has high value, if the importance of a playoff run means Marty doesn’t get traded, then Ott shouldn’t get traded.
This trade deadline should be about asset accumulation. If someone wants Skrastins or Woywitka tell them thanks and to pack their bags. It someone wants Lethenin or Brunnstrom tell them thanks and to pack their backs. But for Neal, Benn, Richards, Grossman, Fistric and Loui (I go back and forth on Ribs) no one is untouchable because the Stars needs assets.
A 7th rounder? For Turco? Forgive me, but what are you thinking? That is no kind of return for Marty.
My greater...
My greater point was that the Stars need assets right now. If Marty gets you an asset, even if it is just a 7th rounder, though I personally think he’s worth more, then you need to do that. This Stars team is in a dangerous position going forward: just good enough to be in the 7-8-9-10 range, but never good enough to get out of the first round. If the goal is winning the Stanley Cup then the Stars need to retool on the fly and part of that is trading Turco for assets.
Look at the Rangers, sure, they would have been better the last part of the season if they had held onto Teixeira than trading him but trading him got the Rangers assets that make them a contender for the next five years. Now, I don’t expect that kind of return on Turco, but the Stars need to accumulate assets.
7th rounder?
Hell, I traded him and Daley for Semin and an AHLer in NHL 2010. :P
Assets are no good if they're not the right assets.
Right now, Nieuwendyk doesn’t think he can get the right assets for Turco, plus he apparently thinks his value to the team right now is worth more continuing to lead this team to the playoffs (fingers crossed) this season in tandem with Kari, who still has not played an NHL game in a year and has only played something like 2 playoff games in his life. Joe has signaled that he is not ready to run up the white flag on this season, especially since the Stars are so concerned about putting butts in the seats at the AAC. They aren’t going to do that without showing some signs of immediate success.
The Rangers, contenders? LOL. Not until the shore up the one area they have been weak in for something like the last 15 years….you’d have thought Nolan Ryan would have knocked some sense into them in that area by now.
Right assets?
What? There is no such thing as a wrong asset is sports. This team is not going to the playoffs. Marty isn’t good enough and the defense is even worse. The time is now to run the white flag up on this thing.
The Rangers are contenders and the fact that you think they are pitching deficient means you don’t know anything about the Rangers.
Two things:
One: No matter what the weakness on this team might be, I just can’t agree with running up the white flag. I can’t. Make moves for the future sure, but you can’t go into firesale mode when you are this close to a playoff spot.
Second: The Rangers are anything but pitching deficient.
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Feb 24, 2010 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
Ok.
I get your point, and it’s a valid one. But you can’t compare trading Mark Texeira to trading Marty Turco.
You keep mentioning assets, and what the Stars will get for Turco and how important that is for the Stars future. But there has to be a decision point where the team says: future assets are not worth 3 home playoff games this season. So where does that line lay?
If the Stars can get a decent roster player, a high prospect or a 2nd rounder or higher, then you have to consider trading him. But anything lower than that, and trading away Turco is just not worth it.
This is a team that is in financial dire straits, and playoff games are extremely valuable. Turco gives this team the best chance to make the playoffs this season. That is much, much more valuable for the long term future (more revenue, better feeling among the fans), than taking a chance and trading Turco away for draft picks.
If the ‘asset’ you get back is anything less than a 2nd rounder, it’s nowhere near worth the trade. 3-7th round draft picks have something like an 8% chance of making it to the NHL.
So which is more worth it?
If the Stars get a good offer, that makes possibly missing the playoffs worth it, then by all means make the trade. But the market for goaltenders right now is overflowing, and there just isnt’ much value for him right now.
So what’s more value? Trading him for a chance at something in the future? Or keeping him to make the playoffs this season, which can pay off next season?
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Feb 24, 2010 5:44 PM CST up reply actions
Actually, Marty's draft class is probably the exception that proves that rule.
Marty, Evgeni Nabokov, Tim Thomas, Sheldon Souray, Tomas Vokoun, Johan Hedberg, Chris Drury, and Daniel Alfredsson were all from the 1994 draft who were taken in the 3rd round or later. Thomas, Nabokov, Hedberg and Vokoun were all taken in the 9th round. But the odds of trading away Marty Turco today and just happening to stumble upon one of these diamonds in the rough are so small as to likely be infinitesimal. Even finding a good, steady everyday player that far down would be pushing it.
Teixeira/Turco
I wasn’t trying to compare them other than saying when you give up a big league asset for picks or minor league assets then you are going to weaken your team for the short term for the hopefully long term benefit.
My response on the financials is that three playoff games would be nice, but in the scheme of things the only thing that is helping the finances of this team is a new owner. Not making the playoffs isn’t going to cause next years budget to be less because if Hicks wants a lower than $45m budget, he’s going to get it.
I think you are over estimating their chance of making the playoffs.
Why? We are 1 point out and facing the same constraints as every other team...
a super-condensed schedule because of the two-week Olympic break. In fact, we might even be at an advantage over some teams (San Jose, for example) because we did not send as many players to the Olympics. Half our team is not coming back from the break bone tired.
Yeah
Yeah, something like $41m and I have no doubt that Hicks wouldn’t take it there if he felt it would make the team profitable, results be damned.
That's true.
That’s the unfortunate part of this whole mess.
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Feb 24, 2010 7:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'm certainly not saying it's a given.
They have a high number of games left against division teams left. But it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
Nor am I saying that the Stars absolutely, no way should trade Turco.
But they shouldn’t trade him just to get SOMETHING. I’m saying that there isn’t the value in this trade that you think there may be, to make trading him away and giving up on this season worth it. Because that’s what they’d be doing at this point.
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Feb 24, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
100% agree
Plus weren’t the Stars a lower seed (5-7?) 2 years ago when they made their run to the WCF against Detroit? Not sure if home ice matters as much in the playoffs.
Here's a crazy thought
Has Marty indicated to Joe that he’s willing to take a hometown discount and stay here in Dallas – even if he stays as the #2 to Lehtonen?
Miami Hockey misses Brendan Burke. RIP sweetie - gone too soon.
There's really been no indication that there have been any talks recently.
In an interview (I think shortly after the Lehtonen trade), Joe indicated the sides hadn’t talked in months. I think if they do talk again, it won’t be until after the season ends. I know Marty has said in interviews that he really does want to stay in Dallas – he and his family really like it here (they’ve been here for almost a decade and I’m sure the girls have friends and all that at school). Whether that means he is willing to forgo money and a bit of pride to stay here, who knows? Depends on what is out there for him in free agency. As Brandon pointed out, there is a glut of goalies on the market this year.
WOOT! Morrow just scored for Canada!
Well, they definitely have friends in their neighborhood
In the BaD BM show interview right after the Lehtonen signing, Morrow talked about how hard it was going to be to see his travel roommate, close-to-the-family, kids-play-together friend leave. Reminded me of when Turco gave possibly the most loving congratulatory quote I’ve ever seen right after the twins were born.
I know not everyone cares about the touchy-feely fan love for personable players, so I’ll redirect a bit – Does any one else get nervous at the idea of hanging onto both Lehtonen and Krahn long-term?
Woooooo!
Off Topic: Morrow just scored!
_________________________________________________________
I'm probably not serious.
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by RyanM on Feb 24, 2010 7:17 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I believe Joe has tried to trade him, he just can't.
Which isn’t a bad thing,
I am still "FRISKY FOR NISKY"
Lehtonen
It better be Lehtonen or Joe needs to be fired.
well
we all hope lehtonen is the answer. i remain skeptical.
but i’m not calling for joe’s head yet. it’s been a year on a team with a tight budget. rash firings don’t solve anything. and i wouldn’t expected kari to be the savior of this team. joe is taking a shot at a young kid with a lot of talent who might finally be healthy, and didn’t give up much to get him. we’ll see how it pans out.
and i meant as terms of free agents. i personally rather re-sign marty to a 2 year, 4 mil contract, which doesn’t do much in terms of hindering us financially, allows for at least 2 more years of reliable goaltending and mentorship, and doesn’t throw us into a chasm of instability.
Too Much
The Stars can’t afford to tie up $5m in goalies.
still leaves
40 million for the rest of the roster. and goaltender is the most important position. so yeah, gonna have to disagree with you on that one. NEVER undervalue goaltending.
and
there’s no way he’s going to ask for the same salary, or get it from any team. he wants to stay. do what we did with lehtinen. HOME TOWN DISCOUNT. HE WANTS TO STAY.
these guys aren’t financially strapped. he’ll sign for 1.5-2.5 mil. probably 2 or less. that’s not a small amount of money.
and let me repeat this. HE WANTS TO STAY. all joe would have to do is say, “if you want to stay, this is what we can offer you”. the stars’ hold the upper hand here.
No way it works,
take a look at the post on trading Ott for the numbers break down for next year. Sure Marty wants to stay … but he isn’t giving us a 50-60% discount. I think someone out there will pay him that much more than what we can offer. This team probably has about $4mill penciled in for next year … and Leths will take up over $3mil of that.
...
If money was not an issue I am sure Marty would be a shoe in to finish his career here. However this is not the case, although everyday they way this team spends money I wonder how strict this team budget really is….
Anyways back on topic If re-signing Marty becomes expensive and compromises this teams ability in any way to re sign our RFA’s, and potentially Modano if he wants another go, or an upgrade on defense the team is probably better off going another route. That being said I would love to see Marty and Joe work out a situation where everyone can be happy.
My feeling has been to try and keep him here as well.
It would be great if Turco was willing to transition from #1 to #2 over the next season. That way a veteran can train up Lehtonen, and maybe even teach him how to handle the puck some.
The real question is whether or not Turco is willing to become Dallas’ number 2 after being number 1 for so long. My gut tells me no. But I honestly think that would be the best solution for everyone involved.
Can i ask a stupid question?
How does the roster freeze apply to players that might be taken on waivers? I’m guessing that’s allowed since it’s happening…
Blogging about the Texas Stars at HundredDegreeHockey.com
I like it.
Turco might not be a Star next year, but I like that they’re letting him stay the rest of his contract. Honestly, I can’t imagine Marty with any other team, despite how hard I am on him. I give him a lot of flack, but I’d be sad to see him go.
Plus, if he can keep up this new revitalized Turco he’s been, it’ll turn out to be a good decision.
Here's to all us girls who love hockey...and the men who play it.
by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Feb 25, 2010 10:47 AM CST reply actions
Here's a shot from left field....
Am I the only one that thought Turco played balls-out that last stretch before Vancouver because he was SCARED he was gonna get traded? We’ve seen this crap too many times from Marty – play awesome hockey for a stretch and then just flat out give up when it counted most, ie – the playoffs.
Here’s another way to look at that “awesome” trade now:
Dallas trades a 4th rounder, Vishnevskiy(a promising prospect, maybe the Stars best prospect), and release Auld for Lehtonen(unproven, health problems) and keep Turco(plays well in spurts, can sign elsewhere in the Summer).
Most experts, I would think, would say the Stars just fleeced themselves in these moves. I’m starting to get the feeling that Joe is being too loyal to the old guard now. He needs to learn how to separate business from friendship. Seriously.
not sure when he
flat out gave up in the playoffs? who was our best player the last two times we were in the playoffs?
re-watch those colorado series, prior to our last two playoff runs. watch how poorly the team played. watched who gave up then.
Don't know if he is an 'expert' in your eyes...
But Sean Leahy over at Puck Daddy agrees with me.
Dealing Turco away with the team so close to a playoff spot would signal to fans that Dallas is throwing in the towel on the season and Nieuwendyk’s job is to look out for the best interests of the team. If Turco isn’t attracting any worthwhile offers from other teams, then as Brandon said, he’s more valuable over the next few months than any draft picks or prospects they’d get in return in a deal.
Also, I don’t know how you can say Joe is being loyal to the ‘old guard’ and putting friendship over business. For one, he played with Turco very briefly here in Dallas when Turco was still a backup. Second, he made the extremely tough decision not to sign Sergei Zubov; a good friend of his and a player the Stars really could have used this season… maybe.
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Feb 25, 2010 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
Brandon, you hit it on the head,
To mostly cut and paste what I posted at DMN:
Turco is gone this summer … baring some really strange happenings Lehtonen and someone else earning around or under $1mil will be our goalies next year. It could be Auld if he will sign for that, but right now we are willing to pay anybody $125k to take Auld off our hands.
Turco for a 3rd round pick (or worse)? That pick would have maybe a 20% chance of even being an NHL player in 3-4 years and would likely be a 3rd/4th liner even then. To me it is a much better return on the remaining Turco asset to ride him and Lehtonen for a playoff push, while being able to integrate Lehtonen in at nice even pace to make sure he is recovered from his injury and surgeries.

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