Hockeymetrics: Point Projection Update

Because these projections were wildly popular (or so I keep telling myself) and because of Brad's post about the Stars ascent to the 3rd spot in the Western Conference standings, I decided to dust off the point projections spreadsheet and update it just to see what I'd find.

Here's the data by point percentage with overall wins and regulation wins (not shown) as the tiebreaker. And after the jump, some observations.

 

    GP GR W L OT PTS Pt Pct Win
PCT
PtsPer
Game
Proj
Pts
Proj
W
Max
Pts
GmsVs
Stars
Stars pts Opp Pts
1 DET
20
62
14
4
2
30
0.750
0.700
1.500
123
57
154
1
2
0
2 CLB
21
61
14
7
0
28
0.667
0.667
1.333
109
55
150
3 DAL
22
60
13
8
1
27
0.614
0.591
1.227
101
48
147
4 VAN
22
60
12
7
3
27
0.614
0.545
1.227
101
45
147
5 STL
22
60
12
7
3
27
0.614
0.545
1.227
101
45
147
3
6
1
6 PHX
22
60
11
6
5
27
0.614
0.500
1.227
101
41
147
1
2
0
7 LA
22
60
13
9
0
26
0.591
0.591
1.182
97
48
146
2
0
4
8 SJ
22
60
11
7
4
26
0.591
0.500
1.182
97
41
146
1
2
1
9 COL
23
59
13
9
1
27
0.587
0.565
1.174
96
46
145
2
1
4
10 MIN
22
60
11
9
2
24
0.545
0.500
1.091
89
41
144
11 CHI
26
56
13
11
2
28
0.538
0.500
1.077
88
41
140
12 NSH
22
60
9
8
5
23
0.523
0.409
1.045
86
34
143
1
0
2
13 ANA
25
57
11
11
3
25
0.500
0.440
1.000
82
36
139
3
2
4
14 CGY
23
59
9
12
2
20
0.435
0.391
0.870
71
32
138
15 EDM
22
60
6
12
4
16
0.364
0.273
0.727
60
22
136
   
336
894
172
127
37
381
0.567
0.512
1.134
93
42
-127
14
15
16
The Stars have a point percentage of .614 (27 out of a possible 44 points) and a winning percentage of .591. If you project that out, the Stars would finish with a total of 101 points. Or an improvement of 13 points over last season.
  • As Brad mentioned, the Stars have done their fair share of damage against the Eastern Conference, racking up a total of 12 points out of a possible 16 (didn't have enough room on the spreadsheet to include this). Their loss last Monday to Toronto represented just the second loss of the season against the East. Their other loss occurred on October 18th at Tampa Bay.
  • Against the West, however, they've picked up 15 out of a possible 28 points. Not bad, mind you. Until you factor in the 16 points that West opponents have picked up against the Stars.
  • As far as some Western Conference observations:

    • The Chicago Blackhawks currently sit 5th in the West. But that's primarily because they've racked up 28 points in 26 games, which is the most number of games played thus far in the season. As a result, they have a point percentage of just .538, good for 11th in the West.
    • Last year, 95 points wound up being the cut line in the West while in the East, it was 88 points. This year, it's been bumped up to 97 points in the West and 90 points in the East.
    • Brad mentioned that Dallas is just four points off the 13th spot in the West. As you can see from the spreadsheet, if you project the entire Western Conference out based on the results up to this point in the season, there's a 5 point gulf between the 3rd seed and the 9th seed.
    • And if you project out, three teams from the West that made the playoffs last year would miss them this year. Those teams being the Avalanche, Predators, and the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks. If the Hawks do miss the playoffs, they would become just the second team in the post-lockout era to win the Cup in one season and miss the playoffs the next.
    • Edmonton finished with the worst record in the NHL with 62 points. This year, they're on pace to only accumulate 60 points.
    • The average points per game by all Western Conference teams is 1.134. In the East, it's 1.074
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