Dallas Stars October in Review: Hockeymetrics (Part 2)

by Brandon Bibb on Nov 3, 2009 6:00 PM CST in Analysis Comment 4 comments

Friday, I posted part 1 of the Hockeymetric Series on where the Stars stand against the rest of the league in 5-on-4 and 4-on-5 TOI at the end of October. Today, we'll take a look at where they stand in various Goals For and Goals Against metrics.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'll be sorting the tables by GF/60 and GA/60. As I mentioned in my last Hockeymetrics post, I think GF/60 and GA/60 metrics do a better job of measuring a power play and penalty kill's effectiveness than the current method of just taking Goals For and Goals Against and dividing them by the number of power play or penalty killing opportunities.

Statistics After the Jump:

First, we'll look at the GF/60 stats for 5-on-5 play, which also include Shots For/60 and Shots Against/60. The column +-per60 is simply a Goal Differential (GF/60 - GA/60)

TEAM	TOI	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	SPCT	GA/60	SA/60	SPCT	+-per60
WSH	627.6	36	24	3.4	28.8	880	2.3	31.5	927	1.1
DAL	657.8	34	26	3.1	27.5	887	2.4	28.0	915	0.7
CGY	576.4	30	27	3.1	25.0	875	2.8	28.9	903	0.3
PIT	623.3	30	20	2.9	32.2	910	1.9	26.1	926	1.0
ATL	459.6	22	20	2.9	26.5	892	2.6	34.3	924	0.3
S.J	683.5	33	25	2.9	31.2	907	2.2	27.9	921	0.7
PHI	534.3	25	23	2.8	32.1	913	2.6	28.5	909	0.2
L.A	686.3	32	24	2.8	27.0	896	2.1	24.8	915	0.7
NYR	688.2	32	28	2.8	28.0	900	2.4	30.3	919	0.3
BUF	489.2	23	13	2.8	36.6	923	1.6	28.7	944	1.2
CBJ	576.1	26	30	2.7	28.6	905	3.1	28.7	891	-0.4
CHI	601.5	27	20	2.7	35.3	924	2.0	19.8	899	0.7
OTT	550.7	25	28	2.7	31.8	914	3.1	25.2	879	-0.3
T.B	534.8	23	24	2.6	26.9	904	2.7	29.5	909	-0.1
DET	558.6	24	27	2.6	32.1	920	2.9	27.4	894	-0.3
EDM	703.6	31	32	2.6	24.0	890	2.7	34.4	921	-0.1
COL	680.9	28	23	2.5	24.9	901	2.0	31.0	935	0.4
BOS	620.0	24	21	2.3	28.5	918	2.0	27.2	925	0.3
FLA	551.5	21	28	2.3	26.8	915	3.0	35.6	914	-0.8
STL	550.5	21	21	2.3	27.0	915	2.3	30.3	924	0.0
ANA	541.3	21	21	2.3	26.7	913	2.3	34.9	933	0.0
MTL	650.7	23	28	2.1	26.5	920	2.6	28.8	910	-0.5
NYI	648.2	23	28	2.1	29.0	927	2.6	30.6	915	-0.5
N.J	565.8	20	19	2.1	29.7	929	2.0	26.5	924	0.1
VAN	688.1	23	26	2.0	31.4	936	2.3	26.9	916	-0.3
PHX	643.5	19	17	1.8	28.7	938	1.6	25.2	937	0.2
CAR	552.6	17	33	1.8	30.5	940	3.6	28.2	873	-1.7
TOR	548.5	15	29	1.6	31.8	948	3.2	27.5	884	-1.5
NSH	620.1	17	24	1.6	24.9	934	2.3	29.8	922	-0.7

Second to the high scoring Caps in 5-on-5 GF/60? Yeah, you can't really complain about that. For comparison sake, the Stars ended last season with a 2.6 GF/60 rating and a 2.7 GA/60 at 5-on-5 for a differential of -0.1. Behindthenet shows it at -0.2, but I imagine that's due to rounding.

So essentially, they've turned a -0.2 goal differential into a +0.7. You certainly can't complain about that.

Next, we'll take a look at GA/60. This list is sorted from the highest GA/60 to the least. The Stars come in with the 14th fewest GA/60 in the NHL.

TEAM	TOI	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	SPCT	GA/60	SA/60	SPCT	+-per60
CAR	552.6	17	33	1.8	30.5	940	3.6	28.2	873	-1.7
TOR	548.5	15	29	1.6	31.8	948	3.2	27.5	884	-1.5
OTT	550.7	25	28	2.7	31.8	914	3.1	25.2	879	-0.3
CBJ	576.1	26	30	2.7	28.6	905	3.1	28.7	891	-0.4
MIN	633.1	16	32	1.5	26.3	942	3.0	28.5	894	-1.5
FLA	551.5	21	28	2.3	26.8	915	3.0	35.6	914	-0.8
DET	558.6	24	27	2.6	32.1	920	2.9	27.4	894	-0.3
CGY	576.4	30	27	3.1	25.0	875	2.8	28.9	903	0.3
EDM	703.6	31	32	2.6	24.0	890	2.7	34.4	921	-0.1
T.B	534.8	23	24	2.6	26.9	904	2.7	29.5	909	-0.1
PHI	534.3	25	23	2.8	32.1	913	2.6	28.5	909	0.2
NYI	648.2	23	28	2.1	29.0	927	2.6	30.6	915	-0.5
MTL	650.7	23	28	2.1	26.5	920	2.6	28.8	910	-0.5
ATL	459.6	22	20	2.9	26.5	892	2.6	34.3	924	0.3
NYR	688.2	32	28	2.8	28.0	900	2.4	30.3	919	0.3
DAL	657.8	34	26	3.1	27.5	887	2.4	28.0	915	0.7
VAN	688.1	23	26	2.0	31.4	936	2.3	26.9	916	-0.3
WSH	627.6	36	24	3.4	28.8	880	2.3	31.5	927	1.1
NSH	620.1	17	24	1.6	24.9	934	2.3	29.8	922	-0.7
ANA	541.3	21	21	2.3	26.7	913	2.3	34.9	933	0.0
STL	550.5	21	21	2.3	27.0	915	2.3	30.3	924	0.0
S.J	683.5	33	25	2.9	31.2	907	2.2	27.9	921	0.7
L.A	686.3	32	24	2.8	27.0	896	2.1	24.8	915	0.7
BOS	620.0	24	21	2.3	28.5	918	2.0	27.2	925	0.3
CHI	601.5	27	20	2.7	35.3	924	2.0	19.8	899	0.7
N.J	565.8	20	19	2.1	29.7	929	2.0	26.5	924	0.1
COL	680.9	28	23	2.5	24.9	901	2.0	31.0	935	0.4
PIT	623.3	30	20	2.9	32.2	910	1.9	26.1	926	1.0
BUF	489.2	23	13	2.8	36.6	923	1.6	28.7	944	1.2
PHX	643.5	19	17	1.8	28.7	938	1.6	25.2	937	0.2

Again, last year, the Stars had a GA/60 of 2.7 during 5-on-5 play versus their current 2.4 GA/60 during 5-on-5 play. From a league-wide perspective, Detroit had a GA/60 of 2.5 during 5-on-5 play last season. This year, they've checked in with a 2.9.

Next, we'll look at the GF/60 during 5-on-4 power play time.

TEAM	TOI	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	SPCT	GA/60	SA/60	SPCT	+-per60
CGY	51.8	10	0	11.6	48.6	762	0.0	6.9	1000	11.6
ATL	56.5	10	0	10.6	46.7	773	0.0	6.4	1000	10.6
PHI	87.8	15	2	10.3	60.2	830	1.4	12.3	889	8.9
S.J	97.3	16	1	9.9	45.0	781	0.6	8.0	923	9.2
PHX	89.2	14	0	9.4	45.8	794	0.0	8.1	1000	9.4
VAN	96.4	15	2	9.3	55.4	831	1.2	6.8	818	8.1
DET	88.3	12	0	8.2	59.8	864	0.0	6.1	1000	8.2
NYR	80.9	11	1	8.2	51.2	841	0.7	7.4	900	7.4
WSH	96.5	13	2	8.1	66.6	879	1.2	12.4	900	6.8
EDM	84.0	11	2	7.9	42.9	817	1.4	6.4	778	6.4
ANA	63.1	8	2	7.6	65.6	884	1.9	10.5	818	5.7
CHI	70.7	9	1	7.6	41.6	816	0.8	5.9	857	6.8
L.A	96.8	12	2	7.4	47.1	842	1.2	13.0	905	6.2
PIT	90.0	11	0	7.3	54.0	864	0.0	8.0	1000	7.3
TOR	67.7	8	0	7.1	47.9	852	0.0	8.0	1000	7.1
MIN	96.2	11	3	6.9	48.6	859	1.9	8.1	769	5.0
CBJ	86.7	10	1	6.9	50.5	863	0.7	12.5	944	6.2
COL	92.1	10	1	6.5	44.9	855	0.7	9.1	929	5.9
N.J	65.9	7	1	6.4	45.5	860	0.9	10.9	917	5.5
NYI	84.3	9	0	6.4	56.3	886	0.0	10.7	1000	6.4
CAR	97.3	9	0	5.6	43.8	873	0.0	4.3	1000	5.6
DAL	90.7	8	0	5.3	64.2	918	0.0	8.6	1000	5.3
BUF	82.1	7	2	5.1	49.7	897	1.5	15.3	905	3.7
STL	71.8	6	1	5.0	47.6	895	0.8	5.8	857	4.2
T.B	83.8	7	3	5.0	49.4	899	2.1	15.0	857	2.9
MTL	80.3	6	1	4.5	53.1	915	0.7	8.2	909	3.7
BOS	80.2	6	3	4.5	47.1	905	2.2	15.7	857	2.2
FLA	80.5	6	2	4.5	46.2	903	1.5	15.6	905	3.0
NSH	77.1	4	1	3.1	67.0	953	0.8	3.9	800	2.3
OTT	63.7	3	1	2.8	43.3	935	0.9	6.6	857	1.9

Obviously, as well as the Stars have played on 5-on-5 this year, they've struggled a bit with the power play with the 22nd highest GF/60 rating in the NHL during 5-on-4 play of 5.3. Last season, the Stars had a 5.1 rating, good for 27th highest in the NHL.

Finally, a look at the 4-on-5 GA/60. As you can probably guess, these numbers won't be pretty.

TEAM	TOI	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	SPCT	GA/60	SA/60	SPCT	+-per60
FLA	64.8	2	13	1.9	10.2	818	12.0	53.7	776	-10.2
DET	59.8	1	11	1.0	10.0	900	11.0	61.2	820	-10.0
TOR	75.3	1	13	0.8	11.2	929	10.4	53.4	806	-9.6
DAL	71.3	1	12	0.8	5.1	833	10.1	49.7	797	-9.3
ANA	85.0	2	13	1.4	9.2	846	9.2	47.3	806	-7.8
L.A	94.0	0	14	0.0	7.7	1000	8.9	47.9	813	-8.9
NSH	61.2	2	9	2.0	12.7	846	8.8	50.0	824	-6.9
VAN	89.0	0	13	0.0	4.0	1000	8.8	50.6	827	-8.8
MTL	85.4	1	12	0.7	13.3	947	8.4	47.1	821	-7.7
BUF	58.0	0	8	0.0	7.2	1000	8.3	50.7	837	-8.3
T.B	79.2	0	11	0.0	8.3	1000	8.3	52.3	841	-8.3
CBJ	81.7	2	11	1.5	10.3	857	8.1	58.7	863	-6.6
BOS	70.6	0	9	0.0	6.8	1000	7.7	57.8	868	-7.7
WSH	98.4	0	12	0.0	10.4	1000	7.3	45.1	838	-7.3
N.J	67.9	1	8	0.9	10.6	917	7.1	52.1	864	-6.2
EDM	85.8	0	10	0.0	4.2	1000	7.0	53.9	870	-7.0
STL	81.0	2	9	1.5	11.1	867	6.7	45.9	855	-5.2
NYI	88.8	2	9	1.4	10.8	875	6.1	57.5	894	-4.7
CGY	69.2	2	7	1.7	10.4	833	6.1	52.0	883	-4.3
PHX	83.2	1	8	0.7	10.8	933	5.8	57.0	899	-5.0
CAR	104.0	1	10	0.6	14.4	960	5.8	54.8	895	-5.2
PHI	73.4	0	7	0.0	9.8	1000	5.7	41.7	863	-5.7
ATL	65.5	2	6	1.8	8.3	778	5.5	44.0	875	-3.7
S.J	91.8	1	8	0.7	5.9	889	5.2	53.0	901	-4.6
PIT	97.1	2	8	1.2	13.0	905	4.9	38.9	873	-3.7
NYR	104.5	2	8	1.1	9.8	882	4.6	44.2	896	-3.4
COL	108.1	2	8	1.1	5.0	778	4.4	61.6	928	-3.3
CHI	85.4	1	6	0.7	8.4	917	4.2	52.7	920	-3.5
MIN	87.6	0	6	0.0	5.5	1000	4.1	47.3	913	-4.1
OTT	82.8	4	5	2.9	15.2	810	3.6	60.9	940	-0.7

Now those statistics speaking for themselves, look who has the 2nd highest GA/60 rating for 5-on-4 play? That's right, the Red Wings.

Last season, the Stars checked in with a 7.1 GA/60 mark in 4-on-5 shorthanded situations.

Overall Analysis

These stats pretty much confirm what we've already learned by watching the team play and comparing their point totals from October 2008 to October 2009. The team has improved in many areas.

Still, it's not hard to see there's problem spots in the special teams. Some areas, such as the penalty killing, you'd like to believe they'll able to get sorted out because it's been a calling card of this team for a long time, no matter whose been the coach.

The power play, however, is going to a little hit or miss, primarily because of the absence of a puck moving defenseman.

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Comments

This is some really good analysis.

Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.

by Brandon Worley on Nov 3, 2009 6:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Agreed.

You can get much more analysis out of this than you can being 9 for 38 on the PP or 15 for 27 on the PK.

It’s so frustrating to me that the NHL still uses power play percentage to keep track of who’s the “best” on the power play. Like BB mentioned before, it makes a 3 second power play count just as much as a 5 minute major. I’m sure if we compared these stats to where everyone ranks on the PP percentages, there wouldn’t be a whole lot of variation, but still…. this is a much truer (true-er? I know…it’s not a word) representation.

by Tsudbury on Nov 4, 2009 8:29 AM CST up reply actions

I think Razor has been harping

on those PP stats for years. I think he’s mentioned wanting a PP to be measured as a “Per two minute” number, and not counting 5 seconds as one power play. That’s only 4.2% of one “power play”

by Brad Gardner on Nov 4, 2009 2:39 PM CST reply actions

Great stuff

Really fun to read and analyze things like this. I agree with Razor about the “per 2min” fraction. Has anyone ever heard of talk about making power plays a full 2min no matter what (kinda like a 5min major)? I know it would suck to stay on the power play, but it might reduce the number of stupid penalties if they know they would stay in the box the full 2min. Then PP/PK percentages would be much more accurate (only 5min penalties would throw it off some, but there are not many of those during the year). I’ve never heard it mentioned before so didn’t know if anyone else has, or has any thoughts on that.

by chichitao on Nov 4, 2009 6:19 PM CST reply actions