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Gameday Preview: Dallas Stars @ Edmonton Oilers (8:30p CT)



The Dallas Stars lost on Saturday in their opening night game against the Nashville Predators, and yet fans walked away from the shootout loss with an overall feeling of optimism and hope.

Amazing what a summer without playoff hockey can do for a fanbase.

Tonight the Stars take on the Edmonton Oilers in the first of a three-game Western Canada road trip. It's a tough trio of games (although the game in Vancouver is looking a bit easier at the moment) that will be a good litmus test for a Stars team still eager to learn and adapt to a new system. Two teams that have met more times in the playoffs than any other non-Original Six teams are squaring off tonight, but these are not the Oilers and Stars from the big playoff battle of a decade ago.

After the jump, we take a look at the matchup with the Edmonton Oilers. Also, our SBN brethren at The Copper & Blue have some none-too-kind words to say about the Dallas Stars.

Star-divide

There's no denying that Edmonton Oiler fans despise the Dallas Stars. After all, the two teams have faced each other more in the playoffs than any other matchup in NHL history that didn't involve the Original Six. The Stars have won more series than they lost, and in fact can thank the Oilers for kickstarting their rise to the top of the West in the late 1990s. In 1997 the Oilers and Todd Marchant upset the Dallas Stars with a thrilling game seven overtime win in the opening round of the playoffs, ending Andy Moog's career and prompting the Stars to work harder to build a better team. Two years later the Stars were hoisting the Stanley Cup after ousting the Oilers in the first round.

Bitterness and anger set in and has never been relinquished.

The Dallas Stars:

With Mike Modano and Jere Lehtinen out, here are the projected lines for the Stars.

Neal-Richards-Eriksson
Morrow-Ribeiro-Benn
Ott-Wandell-Brunnstrom
Barch-Sutherby-Petersen

Grossman-Robidas
Skrastins-Daley
Woywitka-Niskanen

It will be interesting to see how long Crawford sticks with Fistric as a healthy scratch, especially after the Stars had trouble clearing bodies from around the net at times. Tom Wandell gets a chance to shine on the third line with Ott and Brunnstrom, a line that could be dangerous in the zone but shaky on defense.

The Edmonton Oilers:

Projected lines:

Jacques - Horcoff - Hemsky
O'Sullivan - Comrie - Stone
Penner - Brule - Cogliano
Nilsson - Gagner - Stortini

Souray - Visnovsky
Grebeshkov - Gilbert
Smid - Staios

Khabibulin

The Oilers are coming off a tough loss on Saturday, when Khabibulin misplayed a puck in the final minute that led directly to the winning goal. The Oilers are also playing under a brand new coaching staff with a new system, that is working to make the team more physical and defensive minded than in the past.

Derek Zona of The Copper & Blue has this to say: "The Oilers debut under Pat Quinn didn't lack for effort. The team is committed to the forecheck and finishing the play. They've still got personnel issues - but the want is there now. Dustin Penner was the best player on the ice against Calgary with a goal and an assist -- his extreme makeover is in full swing. The game ended without much fanfare.

"Actually, the game ended with Nikolai Khabibulin's & his flying circus possibly making a clearing play on a puck, or possibly attempting to get some fresh air. Either way, it was the third time in his stint as an Oiler that a puckhandling gaffe led to a goal. Khabibulin is going to be relied on for at least 55 starts this year and the Oilers need a strong performance to have a chance. Picking up an assist on the game-winning goal against is not recommended."

Key Injuries:

Dallas: C Mike Modano (ribs) and RW Jere Lehtinen (hip/groin) are doubtful.

Edmonton: LW Ethan Moreau (ankle) and C Marc Pouliot (lower body) are doubtful. RW Fernando Pisani (back) is out.

Say What!?!?!

There's no doubting that Oilers fans aren't happy with the Dallas Stars, and are happier than anyone else to see the Stars in what could appear to be a low point for the franchise. But this?

The old grey mare just ain't what she used to be.  To illustrate here's a quote from Brandon Worley at Defending Big D: "the Stars have some serious depth at forward with the addition of Jamie Benn and Tom Wandell.  The defense has been shored up (somewhat) with free agents Karlis Skrastins and Jeff Woywitka."  Yeah...  They also fired Les Jackson (experienced management type) and hired Joe Nieuwendyk (former player with little management experience).  As an Oiler fan, I know a little something about glory-days nepotism but I'll give the short version here: it's not usually successful (I'm being kind).  To wit: one of Nieuwendyk's first actions as general manager was to fire Dave Tippett (good coach, good person) and hire Marc Crawford (? coach, annoying voice).  Further, and this is the real killer, your team is only projected to spend 48M dollars against the cap this year including 7.8M to Brad Richards for winning a Conn Smythe trophy for another team and 1.9M for Sean Avery to actually play for another team.  There's also Marty Turco making 5.7M and Mike Ribeiro making 5.0M (he signed that contract the year after shooting 25%).  Of the sixteen teams that made the playoffs last year, only one spent less than 50M and only two less than 53M in cap space.  The fact that the Stars have four contracts that are quite likely to be poor value (and in the case of Avery it's a 100% guarantee) and are only projected to spend 48M likely means they're going to be a bad team.  I have them finishing 12th in the West.  I know Stars fans aren't used to having a bad team so Brandon's optimism above is understandable but, hey, as an Oiler fan, I've got plenty of pessimism to go around. 

Be sure to check out their seething, but original, Old World hymn on the Dallas Stars.

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It baffles me...
and Mike Ribeiro making 5.0M (he signed that contract the year after shooting 25%)

That people continue to imply that Mike Ribeiro or his contract are anything less than stellar.

Mike Ribeiro is an 80 point guy that makes things happen.

by Brad Gardner on Oct 6, 2009 12:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Even more amazing...

That statement came from a guy who cheers for a team that paid 4.25 million for Dustin Penner’s 17 goals and 37 assists.

Here is another fun fact: Penner and Shawn Horcoff combined for 90 points together last season – and 9.75 million in salary. Considering Ribs had 12 less points for about half the salary, I’d say the Stars are getting much more for their dollar.

by Art Middleton on Oct 6, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here’s the problem though. They’re potentially getting more value than the Oilers. Firstly, they’ll need it since the Oilers are spending about 17% more than the Stars are. Secondly, the Oilers management kind of sucks. Doing better than them isn’t any great shakes. The two teams that spent the most money last year and missed the playoffs? The Edmonton Oilers and the… Dallas Stars. In no way do I hope to defend the management team of the Oilers. They’ve made a lot of terrible calls, this summer included. They’re the team I cheer for, but they’re not very good. I don’t think the Stars are much better.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 6, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Perhaps I’m underestimating Ribeiro but he’s no guarantee as an “80 point guy” in that he’s scored more than 80 points exactly once. In fairness to him, he’s only had the ice time to score that many points five years at most and he did manage 50 points or more in each of those seasons so he’s clearly got some offensive gifts. He did much better than I expected last year, mostly because he got off a lot more shots than he has historically (though even with 56 more shots he scored 5 fewer goals). Still, I think there’s as good a chance for him to underperform a 5M deal than to outperform it and, of the four guys I mentioned he’s got the best shot (Riberio-Turco-Richards-Avery would be my list) at making it happen. He’s only a small part of the overall problem which is that the Stars are spending less money than most playoff teams and are spending big money on guys that might not cover the bet. The Stars are going to need an awful lot of outperformance from other players if they hope to end up with more regular season points than the teams that spend more money.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 6, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tonight

I can’t wait for Neal and Morrow to run a ruckus in Edmonton. And Otter of course.

Prediction: 4-2 Win, with Wandell, Eriksson, Morrow and Ribeiro getting goals; Wandell the game winner.

by agvdstars on Oct 6, 2009 1:05 PM CDT reply actions  

They sound like Buffalo Bills fans regarding the Cowboys.

Bitter much?

Still in Edmonton is always fun. Expect big things out of Ott-Wandell-Brunnstrom and an offensive explosion from the Stars.

Eriksson, Brunnstrom, Daley and Morrow with the goals. 4-2 Dallas.

by Hull Fan on Oct 6, 2009 3:13 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't know

I’m betting Khabibulin bounces back with a nice game. It seems like his way.

I think the Stars are going to by thwarted by a single human for the second game in a row.

by Brad Gardner on Oct 6, 2009 3:22 PM CDT reply actions  

That single human is a wreck.

Not being able to finish games due to dehydration problems. Sweating off 10-15 pounds a game. Assisting on one GA per game.

If you want to talk crappy contracts, forget Horcoff and Riberio…

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Oct 6, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well I’ll finally get to watch a Dallas game on TV tonight, and I’m hoping they pepper Khabby like they did Ellis. I’m also hoping they start popping some in like the 4-2 predictions. They’re going to need to build some scoring confidence over these next two games because you’re kidding yourself if you think Luongo will stutter for the first 4 games of the season. If they can rattle Khabby for a couple early, I think they’ll be OK tonight. He was obviously very pissed and shaken (given his comments) after his mistake last game. Here’s hoping we can capitalize.

You guys have said almost all there is to defend Ribs’ salary compared to the Oilers, but just to add fuel to the fire (why not right?), let’s compare our #1 scorer to theirs. Ribs ($5mil/yr) scored 78 in 82 and 83 in 72 (pts in gms) over the past two years. Hemsky ($3.6mil/yr) scored 66 in 72 and 71 in 74 over those same two seasons. Would you rather spend $1.4mil more for a #1 centre who can score >1pt/gm when he doesn’t lose his #1 LW to a freak injury, or pocket that cash and have your #1 player put up 66 in 82 while playing with his #1 centre all season?

by LilEagle on Oct 6, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions  

I’d just like to point out two things to lend some Oiler-based context to this comparison:

1. Ales Hemsky’s cap hit is 4.1M, so only 0.9M less than Ribeiro.
2. Ales Hemsky’s production declined significantly last season after he received a concussion and in 2007-08 the team’s #1 center went down to injury.

Regarding the Riberio conversation, I wasn’t really criticizing Ribeiro’s contract compared to such and such a thing on the Oilers. I was criticizing it as one aspect of a larger problem for the Dallas Stars. That problem being, the team spends less than most of the teams in the league and they have several contracts that could reasonably underperform their cap number of which Ribeiro’s is the least bad. Even if the Stars are better than the Oilers (I think the two teams are about even) that still doesn’t make them good and/or playoff-worthy.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 6, 2009 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Gotcha. Sorry, I read too much into your first post.

On the latter note, I agree. Tonight, neither team looks much better than the other. Although James Neal is just a monster.

by LilEagle on Oct 6, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Did you mention

that this is new assistant coach, Charlie Huddy’s, return to Edmonton?

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/SLStarsFan

by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Oct 6, 2009 7:00 PM CDT reply actions  

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